MOSCOW. (Simon Koschut, expert on the United States and Trans-Atlantic relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin, for RIA Novosti). -
The Germans are expecting too much from U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama, whose policies many assume would be the diametric opposite of President George W. Bush's. To Germany, Obama embodies an open, tolerant, politically correct and ready-to-negotiate America.
This is what makes Obama so different from President Bush, turning him into the outgoing president's antithesis. In effect, the Germans consider Obama a "kind-hearted American."
Obama is taking advantage of these sentiments and encouraging them positioning himself as an open and tolerant candidate. Obama's Berlin speech will fit nicely into his election campaign, as Germans typically react positively to such an approach.
In Berlin, Obama is perceived as a de facto president-elect. If Germans could vote in the U.S. presidential election, they would already have elected Obama. But in their enthusiasm for the senator from Illinois, Germans tend to overlook the fact that among Americans Obama is only 4% more popular than John McCain, and that much can happen before November.
The more starry-eyed Obamaphiles look upon him as a new Messiah coming to proclaim a new Trans-Atlantic paradise. But this is not going to happen. If Obama wins the election, he will have to address economic problems at home before he looks overseas. And even if he wanted to do everything at once, he will still have to report to Congress and be limited by the system of checks and balances. He would simply be unable to govern if he tried to ignore congressional concerns.
But Congress has already hinted that it plans to implement a protectionist trade policy and to intervene in environmental policies. All this is leaves Obama with little room for maneuver. And like his predecessor, a President Obama would also demand a lot from Germany, including more active involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq.
But Obama is still only a candidate, and will address these issues in general today, without voicing any specific demands. He will make moderate statements in Berlin, trying to win as much sympathy as possible and counter critics who claim that he lacks sufficient foreign policy experience.
We should probably realize now that Obama would clarify his stand after becoming president. On the whole, Obama is unlikely to fulfill the high hopes many Germans have for him. This could become a problem later. Any holiday, after all, is followed by a hangover.
Simon Koschut is an expert on the United States and Trans-Atlantic relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
